Tectonic shifts?

Will Hutton was right to say it doesn't get much bigger than this. He was referring to the Lib Dem power brokering and the issues at stake, specifically the possibility of the biggest reform of the electoral system in almost a century. And as Clegg and the LIb Dems ponder the options before them, it's fascinating to see the sweat break out on the brows of those who've had it their own way for so long. The mantra trotted out by a succession of grandees that all the party leaders acted in a statesmanlike way simply doesn't fit for Cameron, who came across to me as strident, arrogant and hugely out of tune with the prevailing public mood. And he is in a very weak position. The collapse of the Lib Dem vote was due, as Clegg rightly and gracefully acknowledged, to the pressures voters felt from the gravity of what is at stake, which drove them back to the "safety" of the ConLab duopoly. But this squeezing of the Lib Dem vote didn't deliver Cameron the votes he needed. In other words, his frantic appeals in the run-up to polling day for voters not to go to the Lib Dems, were largely heeded, but he still didn't get a majority! His failure to do so is entirely, therefore, his own failure, and he has demonstrably failed to win an authoritative mandate for his political agenda. This is not lost, of course, on his own party careerists and by yesterday afternoon there were the first public signs of the knives being sharpened. While the media still obsesses with its dislike of Brown and the jockeying for power continues, Cameron is relatively safe, but if the premiership eludes him, as is still possible, his demise is likely to be far less dignified, and bloodier, than Brown's. The other factors contributing to Cameron's weakness are his lack of experience, compared to both Clegg and Brown, in conducting hard and complex negotiations behind closed doors and the fact that over the coming days (weeks?) the competing narratives will be largely played out on tv, where Clegg has already demonstrated his supremacy. Add to this the fact that of all three main parties the Lib Dems have the most rigorously democratic process for validating major policy decisions, whereas Cameron appears to be relying on blunt and misplaced assumptions of holding the upper hand, and we have a recipe for talks that could well break down.

Which is why, of course, the big guns are being wheeled out by those who really fear the changes electoral reform would bring. Did you happen to catch the brief appearance of David Owen on yesterday's BBC election coverage? No, I'm not suggesting he's a big gun, rather their mouthpiece, speaking the apocaliptic language adopted in more measured tones later by John Major and most chillingly by the hedge fund manager interviewed by Kirsty Wark on Newsnight (get it on BBC iPlayer if you missed it: one of those rare moments when the mask slips and the brute disdain of naked power is revealed - this is the future, baby!). The real brokers of power on our planet, the unelected oligarchs, billionaires and corporate magnates who fuel the global financial markets, are feeling threatened by the possibility of a few upstart politicians daring to insist on fundamental re-adjustments to a political system that has kept them free of accountability for decades. They will do all in their considerable power to clamp down. Hence the apocalyptic talk and the very real turbulence in the markets. This is their pitch, and Greece their visual aid. The old guard will line up to endorse them: the priority is the deficit; elecoral reform will have to wait! It will be fascinating to see which way the Lib Dems go on this, a battle between expediency and ideology. For them, the ideology of course is mainly parochial, entrenched in their liberal heritage and focused on the specific issue of electoral reform, but it's by now so bound up with their identity within our current political system, that to abandon it, even in the face of so much pressure, could be political suicide. (On the other hand, I suspect they lack the ideology, or the will to deploy it if they have it, to refute head on that of the Markets.) But if they hold to their principles, they could be in a position to begin the long process of restoring our archaic political infrastructure, without which, social, political and economic renewal can be little more than an idle dream as we flip between multiple channels all offering the same.

The most important event of this election, given arrogantly condescending minimalist treatment by the BBC, was the election of Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavilion as the UK's first Green MP. A small but vital conduit for alternative ideas to enter the mainstream. A little beacon of hope for thousands, if not millions, of citizens who feel utterly unrepresented by the mainstream parties. Good luck, Caroline!